Winters Have Become The Most Unsafe Times, But Why?

On Friday, August 31st a stabbing attack occurred at Amsterdam Central Station. Two people were reportedly injured and police forces shot the assailant and took the two victims and the suspect to the hospital. How unsafe has The Netherlands become? Are some months more dangerous than others?

Safety is vital to our well-being. We all want to feel safe in our home or work and would like to live in crimeless neighbourhoods or cities. Unfortunately, that is not always the case as some parts of our surroundings have a higher crime rate than others and some months are more dangerous than others.

The following data comes from private and public source. The safety score index is built up from a mix of burglaries, CBS data and nuisance reports and it ranges from 0 to 10. The data is collected since January 2018 and does not inform us about the long-run movement of the safety score.

Figure 1: Average safety score in the Netherlands since January 2018 until September 20181 b

It is startling to see in Figure 1 that the average safety score is higher in the summer than it is in the winter. This might be explained  from different viewpoints. First, as seen from our report, the Dutch fly much more during summer as they take their holidays around July and August. That means that a big majority of residents are away from home and report less noise complaints from tourists which puts the index up by  0.25 basis points.

Secondly, in the summer noisy activities happen mostly outside which in turn leaves less room for the Dutch to complain about their neighbors or the student parties.

Another interesting viewpoint over this data is to see how this score change for the big cities since January. If in the summer, the country becomes safer, is this true for all the provinces and regions? Shouldn’t Amsterdam become more risky during the tourist season?

Figure 2: Safety score movement since January 2018image (28)

Compared to the average score, all large cities score lower in safety. As the Economist put it: In many respects it’s the very success of cities, in their role as global social and economic hubs, that makes them more vulnerable.

Haarlem’s safety score increases as weather gets better. Den Haag becomes safer during the summer months and the score drops back to the normal levels in September. The bigger cities like Amsterdam and Rotterdam get more dangerous with the good weather as more tourists visit. Utrecht loses some safety points during summer and has fewer fluctuations

Coffee is Making you Broke and Xmas isn’t Helping

Coffee drinking might be the most common habit people have. Have you ever thought about how much non-coffee drinkers save? This piece is going to look at monthly transactions and expenses for three different price levels of coffees: cheap, average and expensive. Every month, people are spending more on expensive coffee and less on average-priced coffee.

Even if you’re not a java junkie,  you probably just ended up inviting a friend for coffee.  But if you regularly guzzle it, have you ever made an estimate of your monthly expenses on java?

There can be huge variations between the “standard” amounts of coffee consumed by most people. That means how much we really spend on coffee each month remains a puzzle. In a study by Amerisleep (2018), 1,008 coffee drinkers were asked about their coffee drinking habits. 79 % of coffee drinkers stated they consume at least one cup on a daily basis, even though 12% of those daily drinkers believed that caffeine is “damaging to their bodies”. One of the most interesting insights from this study is that millennials spend more on coffee than any other age group.

There is no doubt that demand for coffee has always been solid. The International Coffee Organization estimated that 11.2 million bags of 60kg of coffee were distributed all over the world in August 2018, or 5% more than the previous month.

Some countries drink more cups of coffee per day than others. The Finns, for example, grind their way to the top of the ranking through an impressive 12kg per person per year, according to stats from the International Coffee Organization (ICO, 2018). In the same ranking, the Netherlands scores quite high with the average Dutch drinking 1.84 cups of coffee per day.

If millennials and the Dutch like coffee, it does not take a math wizard to conclude that the Dutch millennials love drinking coffee. But how much do students actually pay for coffee? The following data comes from the Netherlands’ biggest student city of Utrecht. It covers coffee consumption at small kiosks next to university campuses from October 2017 until September 2018.

Data and Insights

When it comes to good coffee, those who appreciate it are willing to pay a little bit extra and that makes price a pretty good measurement of quality. For that reason, looking at coffee by price brackets might be a more insightful picture.

We define cheap coffee as any coffee sold below one euro, average coffee as any priced between one and three euros, and expensive coffee as any sold above three euros.

Let’s start by looking at transactions. How many cups of coffee were consumed each month during the last year on the university campuses of Utrecht?

Figure 1: Coffee transactions in Utrecht by monthimage (18).png

On average, 4,000 cheap coffees were sold each month, followed by 10,000 average-priced coffees and 45,000 expensive coffees per month. On average, a total of 60,000 coffees are consumed each month with a spike in the months of October through December.

How about expenses? How much do non-coffee drinkers save? The figure below  shows that cheap coffee drinkers spend around €25 each month on coffee. The average coffee drinkers fork out €78 and the biggest coffee snobs splurge €110.

Figure 1: Coffee expenses in Utrecht each monthimage (19)

What is striking about the figure above is that monthly expenses on average-priced coffee have decreased by 25%, while those on expensive coffee have increased by almost 10%.

This can be seen from a drop in demand for average-priced coffee from January onwards while demand for premium coffee rises.

It could be the case that the price of average coffee went up during the last year and exceeded the threshold of three euros. Keeping in mind how difficult it is to switch to a different type of coffee, the sales boom of pricier coffee should not come as a surprise.

Download the full report: Coffee is Making you Broke and Xmas isn’t Helping