The Best S(m)elling Fragrances in France

The French may take pride in their famously pungent cheeses but there’s another aromatic product that brings in more money: designer fragrances.

In 2017, France exported US$4.8 billion worth of fragrance products to the global market, compared to $3.7 billion of cheese. 

After all, France has been the breeding ground for many iconic names in the industry: Chanel, Christian Dior and Frederic Malle amongst many others. In terms of domestic sales, high tourist arrivals have also helped to boost spending in this segment. In fact, Chinese tourists spend more on cosmetics and fragrances in France than they do on clothing, food or handbags. 

While France didn’t invent perfumes, it did help to popularize them and make them a lingering success. It started with perfumed gloves, favored by royalty and the rich, during the Renaissance period. Perfume came into its own and took off in the 18th century. When Napoleon was in power, it was said that he had a standing order with his perfumer to deliver 50 bottles a month!

Fast forward to the present day, when the global perfume market has grown into a powerhouse valued at over US$30 billion annually. As France is the biggest market in Europe for cosmetics and fragrances, and the fourth largest globally, what is selling well here can be a good indicator of global trends.

So we took a look at our cosmetics and fragrances dataset to sniff out 2019’s hardest-working scents in Europe’s perfume capital, along with other interesting facts:

Top-selling fragrances

  1. Lancôme La Vie est Belle 
  2. Dior Sauvage 
  3. Givenchy L’Interdit 
  4. Dior Eau Sauvage
  5. Dior J’Adore
  6. Jean Paul Gaultier Le Male
  7. Bleu de Chanel 
  8. Paco Rabanne 1 Million 
  9. Dior Joy 
  10. Chanel Coco Mademoiselle 

From the list above, we can see that 4 out of the top 10 fragrances sold are produced by Dior. This success was reflected in the Christian Dior Group’s last financial report, which credited a double-digit jump in revenue to the strong performance of businesses like Perfumes & Cosmetics. 

What else is interesting to note here? (Apart from the fact that the most successful fragrances have French names!) Old is gold, and classics still reign. Even though it seems like we are assailed by a new fragrance launch or campaign every other day, the best-selling list is actually dominated by scents that have been around for a while. For instance, Dior unveiled Eau Sauvage in 1966! Joy, a relative newcomer on the list that was introduced in 2018, was Dior’s first major perfume launch in 20 years. Likewise for Sauvage, which marked Dior’s first new cologne in a decade.

This shows that while successful fragrance launches can be few and far between – once a scent is beloved, it can be a moneymaker for years and decades to come.

Men’s fragrance segment nothing to sniff at

A study in 2017 showed that women purchase a new fragrance as often as once a month while men buy it only once or twice a year, typically for the purpose of replenishment. However, our data reveals that nearly half of the top 10 fragrances sold are men’s colognes, suggesting that buying patterns may be shifting.

As you can expect, sales typically spike right before special occasions like Valentine’s Day or Father’s Day – but growth remains steady even outside key gift-giving times. It could be that men are increasingly viewing fragrance as a grooming essential rather than a luxury, leading to greater usage.

While we previously wrote about waning interest in Dior Sauvage, it still held on to the top spot for the year’s most popular masculine fragrance. Its closest rival in terms of sales is the similar-sounding Eau Sauvage.

Scents and dollars

The same scent can come at several price points based on whether it is an eau de toilette (EDT) or an eau de parfum (EDP). The key difference is in the concentration of scented oils. 

An EDT has a 5-15% concentration, which means it can last for a few hours after you spritz it on. Meanwhile, an EDP has a concentration of 20-30%, making it much more intense, long-lasting – and  expensive. The scent that lingers on in the elevator long after its wearer has left? That’s probably an EDP. 

As EDTs are cheaper, they have been the most popular fragrance type in many markets for a long time. The average price for an EDP is 74 euros, about 15% more expensive than the average EDT. But that trend is shifting as shoppers splash out for – and splash on – more concentrated scents. Based on our data, nearly two-thirds of the top 30 fragrances sold last year were EDPs. 

About our data:

Suburbia partners with companies in the payments and retail industries to create data sets that track anonymized consumer purchases across Europe, delivering a daily view into some of the world’s biggest consumer brands. For insights on luxury cosmetics and fragrances trends, Suburbia’s data set covers sales in over 130 retail outlets in France.

France: Energy production mix is changing

France is in the forefront of clean energy production. The country manages to sustain its demand for electricity by producing around 75% of it through nuclear plants, the highest share in the world of the total energy generation. During the last five years, the total production of energy has remained relatively stable, with fossil energy showing minor shift down. Every day, the production of wind energy and the production of solar energy follow opposite direction, with wind energy being produced more at nights.

France is number two in the world in producing nuclear energy, right behind the U.S. and ahead of Russia and China. If comparison were in terms of nuclear share on the total domestic electricity generation, France has by far the highest percentage portion of any country in the world. However has the total energy consumption increased? What are the main sources of energy in France and how have their portions changed across time?

In our last report we inspected energy consumption in France and found that electricity consumption has increased during the past five years. Around 75% of electricity comes from nuclear energy, due to a long-standing policy based on energy security. In 2015, 15% of electricity came from renewable energy, and therefore 90% non-fossil, non-CO2-emitting energy. Government policy is to reduce nuclear to 50% by 2035, in an effort to increase renewable energy portion.

French production of energy is mainly controlled from ENGIE and EDF, the two largest producers, and some smaller providers that are mainly focused on renewable energy. ENGIE and EDF were state-owned until late 2006 and the government has a large say in their management. Respectively, it currently owns more than 30% of ENGIE’s capital and 85.3% of EDF’s capital.

Interestingly, due to high regulation and governmental intervention in the market, energy efficiency has increased in the past yeas and total production per capita has slowed down. According to the International Energy Agency, the production of primary and secondary oil has decreased by 25% since 2005. As of 2014, natural gas production has experiences a sharp fall and its levels are now incomparable to what they were.

France produces more energy than it consumes. The figure below shows that France consumes almost 1.5 billion MW a year while it produces more than 2 billion MW. However, in our consumption estimates only electricity and gas are calculated.

If we zoom in the production part, fossil and nuclear energy account for the highest portion. There seems to be little variation with the production of these two energy sources. In 2016, nuclear energy declined by almost 8% and remained at those levels ever since.

Clean energy production has showed substantial increase since 2013. In 2018, wind energy has almost doubled and solar energy more than doubled since 2013. This shows the continuous efforts of the French government to move towards clean sources by 2040.

Moving forward to monthly volatility:

During winter, while temperatures decrease and demand for energy increases, the production of energy follows along. However, the overall total production shows less volatility than consumption. In the summer, the total production decreases with 35% while consumption by about 50% in the case of electricity, and 80% in the case of gas.

Zooming in, we see the seasonal fluctuation of solar energy and that of wind. As expected, the highest production of wind is in the stormy season of winter, and the highest production of solar energy is during sunny summer.

Production is higher during daily hours but the difference is not substantial with the night time production. The gap between day and night total production is only 15%.  

Solar energy shows an inverse U-shaped distribution throughout the day with the most energy being produced during light hours. During night time, solar panels require energy stored from during day time as their energy production reaches negative levels. The production of wind energy is highest during night time. 

Download the full report: France: Energy production mix is changing.

France: Energy consumption doubles in winter.

Historically, energy consumption in France has been dependent on coal and oil. Since 1970s gas consumption has tripled, only to slow down during the late years. Increase in energy efficiency, market dynamics and regulation have changed the shape of the pie in the energy market. Electricity, which is mainly sourced from nuclear plants, is the primary source of energy and its consumption is less volatile throughout months. In July, the consumption of gas is 20% of gas consumption in January, while electricity consumption is half of what it is during January.

Introduction

France is the country with the largest share of nuclear electricity in the world. Its electrical grid is part of the Synchronous grid of Continental Europe and the country is ranked among the world’s biggest net exporters of electricity. According to Planet Energies (2018), during 1973 and 2015 oil consumption fell by 35%, while gas consumption almost tripled. How has the consumption of electricity and gas changed during the past five years in France?

In 2015, primary energy consumption in metropolitan France broke down to 42% nuclear, 30% oil, 14% natural gas, 9.4% renewable energy and 3% imported coal. (RTE Results, 2017).  France’s energy landscape has been shifting constantly for a while, with core inputs shifting one another throughout time.

Historically, coal and oil were the two main forms of energy sources. Until 1970, the majority of energy consumption was supported solely from these two sources. However in late 1970’s, the energy structure underwent a profound transformation with the large-scale development of nuclear energy. In 1990s natural gas dominated the energy production and the consumption followed along.

Until 2005 energy consumption rose gradually for both gas and electricity. Changes in economic activity and improvements in energy efficiency eased down consumption. Today, the country is experiencing a fresh transition to clean sources with the development of renewable energies and the implementation of policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. France plans to reduce the share of nuclear to 50% in the electricity mix by 2025.

Mainly energy consumption is split in three major sectors: The first and most important one is residential and tertiary consumption which accounts for about 45% of the total share.

Transportation is second with 33% of the share. This share increased since 1990s when it was around 20% of total consumption, only to decrease at the later years due to changes in regulation and energy efficiency. According to the National Statistics office of France, petroleum-based fuels remain largely dominant in transport.

Thirdly, industry is the sector where the drop in energy consumption until 2015 has been the most remarkable. The sector faced broader developments which shifted from the predominant use of oil and coal to the growing use of gas and electricity over the period. As with gas, the growth was sharp during 1990s, and it slowed down during recent years.

The 2016 International Energy Agency review of France’s energy policies highlights and several areas that are critical to the success of the energy transition. For example, planned growth of the share of electric vehicles and renewable electricity will require enhanced power system operation and flexibility, including demand-side response, smart grids and metering, and more interconnections.

Data and Insights

Following the claims that regulation changed the shares of energy consumption in 2015, total gas consumption saw a sharp increase a year later in 2016. Even though on average, electricity consumption counts more than twice as that of gas, its drop in 2014 was quite sharp.

Looking at regional differences, gas consumption shows three peaks in Grand-Est, Hauts de France and the main economic region Ile de France. Yearly consumption in these regions amounts around 80 million MW. Compared to other regions in France, this amount is almost double.



Monthly data on gas and electricity shows that the seasonal consumption of both these energy sources is highest during winter time when it’s colder and daylight is limited. Areas with highest economic activity like Ile de France show less volatility due to high dependence on these sources.


Gas consumption shows higher monthly volatility than that of electricity, as it is the main source of heating, which is highly dependent on temperature. Electricity usage increases during winter at a slower pace as its consumption is less dependent on weather. The figure below shows this relationship on monthly average terms. During July and August, both electricity and gas are at its lowest levels while temperature is at its highest.

On average, daily consumption of gas in France is 1,303 GB of gas and 2,516 GB of electricity. On average, if daily temperature increases with 1 °C total average consumption of gas decreases with around 84 GB and the consumption of electricity decreases with 60 GB.

Download the full report: France: Energy consumption doubles in winter.

Diesel prices are set to rise.

This piece is going to look at historical price differences between unleaded petrol and diesel in The Netherlands. In the long run the price of crude oil is the main component that affects this price differential. In the short run, state taxes and subsidies affect the price of both fuels. Additionally, environmentally oriented regulations with respect to the level of sulfur in diesel has pushed the prices up and narrowed the difference. Throughout the year there exists some seasonality with winter having smaller price difference, as demand for diesel increases and the price of diesel follows along. 

Unleaded petrol has continuously been more expensive than diesel. In the Netherlands the historical gap has been around 20% and it is getting narrower with time. If in early 2006, petrol was a bit above 25% more expensive than diesel, in 2019 this price differential is 15%. What are the main drivers behind this narrowing?

While the price of crude oil is the main driver of retail fuel prices in the long-run price, differences across countries are due to various taxes and subsidies for gasoline or diesel. During the ending of 2018, crude oil prices have shown shaky signs and the price differential between petrol and diesel is quite unstable.

Crude oil prices have been on the rise for about a year, passing the $80 per barrel level in January 2019. On top of that, supply concerns from U.S. sanctions pushed the prices even further up. In the short run, exchange rates, tax policy, regulations, supply disruptions, and seasonal factors also play a role but these influences are minor compared to crude oil. 

Moving forward, in an effort to decrease pollution from ships, on the 1st of January, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will require the sulfur content in marine fuel to drop from a maximum of 3.5% down to 0.5%.

While in Europe these type of regulations began in the early 1990s, the U.S. began to phase in the ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) only in 2006. Meeting the standards of ULSD requires a substantial investment into equipment to remove the sulfur. In turn, diesel prices went substantially up and the price differential became narrower.

Experts predict that the European average gasoline price is expected to remain relatively stable at around €1.27 per liter in 2019. This average is based on 36 European countries including Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Spain and Russia. The average diesel price is expected to be €1.17 in January 2020, or around 1% more expensive than 2018. In any case, it seems certain that diesel prices are set to rise during 2019, and more significantly than petrol prices.  

Let’s start with the yearly average of oil and diesel prices since 2006. The highest average price of both fuels was noted in 2012 and the lowest was in the aftermath of 2009. The world economic contraction and the lack of local demand pulled crude oil prices down during the financial crisis of 2009 which had an immediate effect on petrol and diesel.

In 2012, higher oil prices, driven by concerns about Iran, have been behind the rising price of petrol fuel. Crude oil prices rose by 12% throughout 2012 and with a recovering economy and an underlying upward trend in global demand, the risks of the price increasing further were high.

Back in 2013, a litre of petrol costed an average €1.78 in the Netherlands, compared with €1.64 in Belgium and €1.55 in Germany. Italy was closest to the Netherlands, with a litre of Euro95 costing €1.73.


Still, the price growth of petrol is nowhere close to that of diesel. The increasing cost of diesel motoring in the Netherlands is partly due to various car-related taxes, which are the highest in Europe. While tax on petrol-driven cars is the second-highest in Europe after Norway.

If we focus on the difference, the figure below can give us more insights. In 2016 petrol was 23% more expensive than diesel, while in January 2019 this gap decreased to a bit above 15%. The lowest recorded difference was that of 2019 but there are eleven months to follow. The second lowest was that of 2008 when both fuels were cheapest.



While the price difference between petrol and LPG has historically remained steady, with petrol being 60% more expensive than LPG, increasing diesel prices are narrowing the gap between diesel and petrol.

Moreover there is a seasonality noticed throughout the year. Fuel oil used for heating homes is made from the same ingredients as diesel fuel. As it gets colder throughout the year, the demand for heating oil rises.

In turn this pushes the diesel price up and narrows the price difference between petrol and diesel further. On average, petrol is 21% more expensive during the period May- September and 17% more than diesel during October- February.

Download the full report: Diesel prices are set to rise.

The Reason Why More London Bikers are Renting and Riding

Good news: Biking in London has become more popular. Every year the number of bike hires has increased and this is a good sign towards car-free cities. During summer the number of hired bikes together with the hiring time increases. This increase is mostly attributed to good weather but not only. In an effort to green commuting, London City has been pushing towards bike friendly policies.

Imagine yourself as a tourist in London. London is exciting and fun but it is also one of the most expensive cities in the world and the tube costs are quite high. Would you consider renting a bike to move around? Would it matter if it’s cold or warm? Would it matter if you had to bike for long?

The Brits might not be as crazy to cycle as the Dutch or the Danes, but with increasing bike infrastructure in London bikers are having it a lot easier to ride in a convenient, safe and obvious way to get around.

There’s a certain sense of freedom in biking. You hop on and pedal to wherever your legs can take you. Not only it takes you places, but biking has so many good externalities for your health and the environment.

However, cycling in big cities where pollution is the highest is not that easy. Cyclists face long distances, bad weather, heavy traffic, increasing number of traffic lights, lack of infrastructure and these are only a few of plenty of obstacles.
However the claim that distances are longer in large cities relies on the typical day-to-day journeys people make In reality, most trip lengths in large cities are actually short.

Huge improvements have been made to London’s cycling network over the last decade, with more driver awareness campaigns, higher safety precautions, more cycle lanes and extensions to the Santander Cycles scheme.

This report is going to look at the number of bike hires in London and the average hire time per month.

Data and Insights

Figure 1 below shows that the number of bike hires has increased since 2010. In 2017 there were more a bit more than 10 million bike hires in London and until 2018 there were 8 million hires recorded for this year.

Figure 1: Number of bicycle hires each yearScreen Shot 2019-01-03 at 1.17.46 PM

Figure 2 below shows the ongoing fluctuation of bicycle hires each month since September 2010. During September 2010 there were 540 thousand bikes hired in London, when as compared to 8 years later in the same month, there were over a million bikes hired.

Figure 2: Number of bicycle hires each month
Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 1.18.13 PM
Hiring time has relatively decreased and spread out a bit more among months. Figure 3 below shows that the average hire time of a single bike in July 2018 was 23 min as when compared to April 2010 when the average hiring time was 27 min.

Figure 3: Average hire time
Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 1.18.30 PM
During winter the length of a bike hire is smaller as weather does not allow for an enjoyable riding. However, what is remarkable is that the average hiring time has lower yearly variation now than it had 8 years ago and is spreading more and more out throughout the entire year.
One could claim that Londoners are caring less about the cold wind and more about getting healthy and saving the environment.
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